![]() Van Driessen, Cassandra, his mom (most of the time), Marcy Anderson, Tom Anderson (when he doesn't recognize them), the Burger World manager, and occasionally Daria being the other characters). Stewart is one of the most genuinely nice characters of the series, and one of the only characters who actually likes/tolerates the titular duo ( Mr. 3 Relationship with Beavis and Butt-head.We will now have to move to a more fiscally driven solution and in that environment risk assets may continue to be bought short term. Japan has the conundrum of trying to reflate. Will the large positions held by the central bank make trading Japanese stocks more difficult due to liquidity issues going forward? Kuroda sees the purchase of ETF`s as helping spur economic activity and increasing the risk appetite in Japan. The BoJ does not buy the shares directly it is the ultimate buyer purchased through ETF`s. The BoJ is a top five shareholder of 81 of the Nikkei 225 via ETF`s and given the recent increase in buying by the end of next year Bloomberg is saying it will be the number one shareholder in 55 names. There is a huge distortion to value driven by the central bank. Despite the enormous purchases of ETF`s the Japanese equity market is not a great place to be. The demographics are not going away, it needs to be fixed but would take years. The scale of the reforms so far are small, none are worthy of the name. When will the Third Arrow be fired? Answer: it is unlikely to be deployed at all. For too long politicians have done nothing about the tight regulations and shrinking workforce hoping a weak Yen will solve all their problems. Fiscal stimulus as ever will be followed by another fiscal stimulus plan.So expect some sort of fusion of monetary and fiscal stimulus to drag Japan clear of the dire position it finds itself in. Abe recently has spoke of more fiscal stimulus ($278Bn in hopes of increasing GDP by 1.3%) but this is not nearly enough, he definitely has more to do. Has the BoJ come to the end of its moves? Has it already pushed the limit? What is left is more uncharted territory. Japan the economy where hope never happens shows us the limitations of monetary policy. This time the markets needs it and means it, expectations are now very high. There will be huge pressure on the BoJ at the next meeting to give us more stimulus. Everything points to more stimulus, we have a strong Yen, weak GDP and poor underlying inflation. ![]() For all the heavy lifting done by the BoJ there is no defined driver of the economy. Has the Yen`s strength has been a sort of shock absorber for the global imbalances ? Has Japan simply imported the bulk of global deflation ? All Japan has given us for many years is slow growth, very slow growth or contraction. Add to this the continued strength of the Yen (+16% vs $ and +18% vs RMB in 2016) a bounce in the oil price and uncertain equity markets which have left CEO`s less optimistic. Private Consumption makes up around 60% of GDP. There was a small increase in Private Consumption of 0.2% but this had slowed from 0.6% in the previous quarter. Manufacturers despite enjoying record profits do not see it as sustainable. The main reasons behind the appalling data were weak exports and a sharp decline in business investment. Commentators are saying the economy has simply stalled. Japan`s economy on an annualized basis grew 0.2%, a dramatic slowdown from 1.9% in the previous quarter.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |